Kazakhstan has an unrealized flour export potential worth $227 million. QazTrade provided the estimate in an analytical review.According to the company, Kazakhstan exported 1.928 million tonnes of flour worth a total of $493 million in 2025.
At the same time, domestic flour mills are operating at 37–39% of their capacity. Existing production capacity makes it possible to process an additional 1 million tonnes of grain without capital investment. This could provide an additional 750 thousand tonnes of flour worth around $200 million. QazTrade estimates the total unrealized export potential at $227 million.
In 2025, exports of Kazakh flour increased to several foreign markets. Exports to Kyrgyzstan rose 7.8-fold, while shipments to Turkmenistan increased 2.7-fold. Supplies to China grew by 73%.
At the same time, exports to Kazakhstan's key markets declined. Flour shipments to Afghanistan decreased by 18.8%, while exports to Uzbekistan fell by 19.3%.
Afghanistan and Uzbekistan together accounted for 75% of Kazakhstan's flour exports in 2025. Afghanistan's share was 52%, while Uzbekistan accounted for 23%. At the same time, both markets are reducing flour purchases by around 19% while expanding their own processing capacities.
Wheat flour production in Kazakhstan amounts to around 3 million tonnes per year. This is twice the country's domestic consumption, which is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes.
QazTrade notes that without exports, flour mill capacity utilization could decline even further. Meanwhile, the average export price of Kazakh flour has already fallen by 5.5%, from $271 per tonne in 2024 to $256 per tonne in 2025.
The company associates the possibility of further reducing product costs with subsidizing logistics for flour exports, as well as lowering tariffs in Central Asian countries. Currently, the tariff on flour stands at 10%, while grain is subject to a zero tariff.
Source: https://agrosearch.kz/en/news/eksportnyi-potencial-kazaxstanskoi-muki-ocenili-v-227-mln
