The forecast for the gross grain harvest in 2017 in the Russian Federation should exceed 100 million tons.
This was announced by the Director of Department for Regulation of Agribusiness Markets of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Volik.
The experts forecasts on the grain market are still significantly higher than 100 million tons. Thus, the Director General of ICAR, Mr. Dmitry Rylko at the conference “Where is the Margin” on Thursday estimated that grain harvest will amount to 113 million tons, including 67.5 million tons of wheat.
In any case, the grain harvest, according to him, will be significant due to the "record good" condition of winter crops. A new record for corn production is also possible.
The President of the Russian Grain Union, Mr. Arkady Zlochevsky is also guided by the upcoming good harvest - he had previously predicted that 110 million tons could be harvested this year.
According to experts, much will depend on the condition of winter crops by the beginning of spring.
At the same time, repetition of a high crop in 2017 may lead to a collapse in prices for grain crops, Mr. Rylko warns. “We see frighteningly low prices for the new crop, which is also based on the assessment of the potential crop in Russia and Ukraine. A colossal grain harvest can turn into a price disaster in the market,” the expert said.
He recalled that there are no drivers for a significant increase in domestic consumption, so export will determine the market situation. And 37.5 million tons of export projected by the Ministry of Agriculture is the minimum volume necessary to maintain a normal balance. At the same time, by February 1, only 22.8 million tons had been shipped abroad, respectively, over the last five months of the season another 14.7 million tons had to be transported. “We never had such a huge share in relation to all exports. That is, the exporters and all participants in the export chain face a colossal task,” Mr. Rylko said.
However, Mr. Volik does not exclude that grain export in this agricultural year may reach more than 37.5 million tons. “I think that, in principle, with certain additional incentives to optimize transportation, it may be possible to further increase this volume,” noted the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture. According to Mr. Rylko’s expectations, Russia in the 2016/17 season will maintain its position as a leading global wheat exporter, "even if it only fulfills the minimum export program by exporting 28 million tons." One of the reasons for leadership is a low wheat crop in the European Union, which is temporarily out of the top league of suppliers of this agricultural crop.
According to preliminary data from Rosstat, in 2016 Russia collected a record 119.1 million tons of grain in weight after refinement, which is 13.7% more than in 2015. Including wheat - 73.3 million tons, which is 19% higher than last year. The carry-over grain reserves as of July 1, 2017, according to the forecast of IKAR, may reach a record 22.5 million tons.
Source: www.agroinvestor.ru
