The record harvest of 2022 increased the export potential of the country, but the large harvest exposed a number of problems, the solution of which is strategically important for the development of the grain market as a whole. We all remember last year's seasonal rush demand for wagons, when demand was several times higher than the capacity of the fleet and infrastructure.
Today, in the "off-season" only in "Astyk Trans" about 800-900 wagons remain unused, this is despite the fact that in general the season is considered active due to high grain residues. In lean years, in the summer months, up to 40-50% of the fleet remain unused. Other freight forwarders have the same situation. The situation is slightly better for car owners who are traders - they have the opportunity to provide transportation all year round. By year, the underload of the fleet on average in the market is 30%, while expeditionary companies underload the fleet is higher - up to 40%. That is, excessive demand during the peak of transportation in the 4th quarter of each year does not compensate for the malaise in the spring-summer months. The significant increase in the fleet that "seasonal experts" are talking about will only exacerbate the situation. The railway fleet is already growing steadily, and not only in part of grain carriers. A constant increase in wagons of all types of rolling stock on existing static tracks leads to "congestion," tracks clogged with wagons, an increase in sludge and the inability of the existing infrastructure to service an ever-increasing number of wagons.
In addition, it is unlikely that anyone can afford to purchase and supply "before better times" (before a large harvest), as these are large, usually borrowed investments, in addition, it will be necessary to pay daily interest on loans and sediment of these wagons.
Is there a way out of the situation? Why does a wave of negativity on logistics rise with a high harvest?
One of the reasons for the increased demand for wagons per season is problems in grain storage. In total, there are enough elevator and warehouse premises for grain in Kazakhstan, but not regionally. For example, Atbasar district collects 2-2.5 million tons of grain annually, this is one of the leaders in grain production in Kazakhstan, but there are only 840 thousand tons of elevator storages there, and about 600 thousand tons at flour mills. That is, only 1.4-1.5 million tons. Therefore, many grain producers seek to quickly load grain onto wagons and, in fact, use wagons as a "warehouse on wheels." The lack of the possibility of long-term storage of grain leads to an excess of supply on the market in the short season and as a result of a decrease in price. In the context of areas, an analysis of the yield and capacity of elevators for 5 years with full-fledged granaries (according to Qoldau) shows a lack of capacities.
In this case, we are not talking about the capacities of flour mills, and other unprepared warehouses, as just open asphalt sites. Grain producers should be able to store grain for a long time while maintaining its quality. On average, grain can be stored for 4-6 years. This would avoid price spikes, which would ensure a fair price for manufacturers and create the basis for stable operation of the industry.
Today we have a situation when we sell the highest harvest of last year at bargain prices to free up capacity before the new harvest, and ahead of us can expect a lean year when prices can rise.
It is possible to transport 1.2 million tons of grain crops with a maximum monthly railway infrastructure, which is 14.5 million tons per year. Kazakhstan on average carries 8-10 million tons per year. That is, it is quite possible to increase transportation with the existing infrastructure, it is necessary to ensure a sufficient volume of modern granaries and then ensure uniform and stable transportation during the year.
Ensuring stability is a priority for our company JSC “Astyk Trans”. Grain trading of our clients, by definition, is not an intermittent process, since bread is eaten all year round, and not only during the harvest period.
Operating in the adopted B2B model (business for business) the Company is interested in developing mutually beneficial and stable partnerships with clients. Stable services for stable companies operating in the grain market (SB2SB) - are the company's aspiration today. One-time shippers, or companies that operate for several months a year, cannot provide fleet loading during the low season. Of course, if there are wagons, we provide them with our services. But during the period of shortage of the fleet, we try first of all to provide those customers who form the basis of our transportation in the off-season. And first of all, these are domestic consumers, since ensuring a socially significant domestic market is a priority for the company.
The sedimentation of the fleet, which is not involved in grain transportation, leads not only to lost profits, but to losses that the owner of the cars bears for maintaining the fleet in the sediment. Yes, this is the peculiarity of the market, and we are used to linking it with seasonality. But this issue requires a solution in order to continue to provide the segment of domestic transportation and socially significant goods. To give the market attractive and competitive tariffs, keep the fleet in working technical condition - the wagons must work throughout the year.
