The turnover of wagons is important not only for assessing the production performance of the fleet, but also directly affects the profitability of transportation. The rate for a wagon is formed based on the standard turnover of wagon. An increase in the turnover period leads to a decrease in profitability per wagon, since the customer pays for standard number of days of transportation, but in fact a wagon is used longer. In addition, the growth of turnover requires the maintenance of a large fleet of wagons for transportation of the same volume of cargo, which affects the additional costs of purchasing or renting wagons, as well as their maintenance and repair.
At the same time, in Kazakhstan, the rates for hopper grain carriers remain relatively stable and they are even declining in dollar terms for several years.
It is no secret that the pandemic has led to global changes in the market. The demand for freight rail transportation has increased, which, along with an increase in the average turnover time of wagons, has led to an increase in the load on the network throughout the Eurasian space, including in Kazakhstan.
This growth coincided with the reform of JSC NC KTZ for locomotive traction and shunting services. The aim of the reform is to differentiate between passenger and freight locomotives, to create competitive conditions for the development of private owners of train and shunting locomotives. At the same time, against the background of the growth of traffic volumes and the insufficiency of locomotive and shunting traction, the downtime of wagons and the number of "abandoned" trains have increased everywhere, which negatively affects the speed of transportation. So in 2021, the turnover on average increased by 36%! Moreover, if earlier the increase in turnover relative to the regulatory one was local and temporary, today it becomes the norm throughout the year.
Given the high cost of locomotives and restrictions for entering the market, as well as the growing operating costs of maintenance, one should not expect a significant increase in locomotive traction competition and stabilization in the market in the next year or two, which means that the turnover of wagons will only slow down.
This situation will lead to a decrease in the fleet, a shortage of wagons and a subsequent increase in market rates, as the cost of repairs increases along with inflation and an outstripping increase in the cost of metal.
In these conditions, in terms of the tariff policy for provision of grain carriers, a differentiated approach is possible, when the cost for using the wagon will be calculated not from the normative turnover, but the actual one, i.e. how many days the wagon was used, for how many days the payment will be made. Therefore, with an increase in the speed of loading / unloading and an increase in the speed of movement, primarily by route shipments, the cost of transportation can be reduced. With a decrease in speed and an increase in the turnover period, the cost may increase. Nevertheless, the increase in rates for use of wagons and the determination of break-even point for all participants in the transportation process is a forced, but necessary step to preserve the stability of grain industry, in conditions of rising costs of railway workers and a decrease in the turnover of wagons.
