Every year grain growers, traders and carriers expect a new harvest season. Having survived the last difficult season, we hoped for mainstreaming activity and active transportation.
However, each year has its own characteristics. This year we see a significant reduction in the geography of transportation and an increase in the load on existing routes.
High domestic barley prices and payment problems made transportation to Iran practically impossible, but demand from China emerged. Will China be able to replace the demand from Iran? It should be noted that the export of barley to Iran in 2018 amounted to 1,597 thousand tons, in 2019 — 1,438 thousand tons, in 2020 for 9 months of 2020 only 466.5 thousand tons, and there is no activation of transportation is observed.
For 9 months of 2020, transportation to China has increased by 22%, and it is transportation in grain carriers that has grown. Hoppers transported 3 times more grain in the direction of China in 9 months of 2020, and their share increased from 8% in 2019 to 21% in 9 months of 2020.
According to customs statistics, for 9 months of 2020, 498.6 thousand tons of grain and oilseeds were exported, which showed an increase of 7% in comparison with the same period last year. The difference in the growth of railway transportation and total exports may indicate a decrease in road transport.
As for barley, in 2019, 13.4 thousand tons were exported to China in 9 months, in 2020 already 107.7 thousand tons, an increase of 8 times! However, this will not replace Iran with a demand of 1,500 thousand tons.
Therefore, we risk losing the export of almost a million tons of barley, since the unloading resources of the People’s Republic of China are rather limited, and Kazakhstan cannot influence this process.